Probability and Statistics 201-SN1-RE • CEGEP, Montreal

Revision sheet: counting (201-SN1-RE)

In counting, the calculation is rarely wrong: the model is.

What the sheet covers

A team counted like a ranking, two sets added although they overlap, identical bases permuted as if they were distinct, and the answer is multiplied by 6, by 24 or by 1728 without a single operation being wrong.

This sheet gathers the moves that decide: writing what ONE outcome is before any formula, going through the complement for “at least one”, removing the intersection before adding, and checking on a small case. It goes with the corrected exercise set on the same chapter, written for CEGEP students taking 201-SN1-RE in the Science program.

  • 8 mistakes that cost marks
  • 4 figures
  • 15 min reading
Do the chapter's exercises

The thread of the chapter

Counting starts by writing the sentence that says when two outcomes are the same: does order matter, can an object come back, can two objects be told apart? Then checking that each outcome is counted once and only once.

Topics covered

  • Multiplication principle
  • Addition principle
  • Factorial notation
  • Permutations
  • Permutations of identical objects
  • Arrangements
  • Combinations
  • Set operations
  • Inclusion-exclusion principle
  • Pascal's triangle
  • Binomial theorem
  • Probability by counting

The chapter at a glance

Choosing the formula with two questions

First write what ONE outcome is, then read the table from top to bottom: does order matter, can an object come back? The two answers point to a column, and the formula comes after.

Sequence with repetition ordered places, an object can come back
Does order matter?
Yes
Can an object come back?
Yes
Formula
nkn^{k}
Example
Words of 3 bases over A, C, G, T: 43=644^{3}=64
Words in the question
code, sequence, word, with replacement
Arrangement ordered places, distinct objects
Does order matter?
Yes
Can an object come back?
No
Formula
P(n,k)=n!(n−k)!P(n,k)=\frac{n!}{(n-k)!}
Example
Leader, secretary and photographer out of 10: 10×9×8=72010\times 9\times 8=720
Words in the question
ranking, distinct roles, numbered positions
Combination a group, order changes nothing
Does order matter?
No
Can an object come back?
No
Formula
(nk)=n!k! (n−k)!\binom{n}{k}=\frac{n!}{k!\,(n-k)!}
Example
Team of 3 out of 10: (103)=120\binom{10}{3}=120
Words in the question
team, group, mixture, simultaneous draw
Identical objects all placed, some alike
Does order matter?
Yes, but swapping two identical objects changes nothing
Can an object come back?
Each object is placed once
Formula
n!n1! n2!⋯nr!\frac{n!}{n_{1}!\,n_{2}!\cdots n_{r}!}
Example
Sequences with A, A, C, C, G: 5!2! 2!=30\frac{5!}{2!\,2!}=30
Words in the question
anagram, sequence of given composition

Legend: the words in the table

Order matters
Two outcomes made of the same objects placed in another order are DIFFERENT: 17-4 and 4-17 are two tickets.
Repetition
The same object can occupy several places, like a base that comes back in a codon.
Arrangement
An ordered list of k distinct objects taken from n (a k-permutation).
Combination
A set of k distinct objects taken from n, without order: a group, a team, a mixture.
Identical objects
Objects that cannot be told apart once placed: two A's of a sequence, two sterile controls.

Several groups of the same size WITHOUT names (teams with no sector): first count numbered groups, then divide by the number of ways to number the groups.

The essentials

Arrangement and combination: a single difference, the factor k!

  • • An arrangement is a combination THEN an order: choose WHICH objects, (nk)\binom{n}{k} ways, then in WHAT ORDER to place them, k!k! ways.
  • • Hence P(n,k)=k!(nk)P(n,k)=k!\binom{n}{k}, and (nk)=P(n,k)k!\binom{n}{k}=\dfrac{P(n,k)}{k!}.
  • • Example: P(10, 3)=720P(10,\,3)=720 ordered lists, grouped in bundles of 3!=63!=6 that contain the same people, give (103)=120\binom{10}{3}=120 groups.
{A, B, C}1 combinationABCACBBACBCACABCBA6 arrangementsP(n, 3) = 3! × C(n, 3)divide by 3! = 6
A single group {A, B, C}, but six ordered lists: each combination of 3 objects is counted 3!=63!=6 times among the arrangements.

The test that decides: are two outcomes that differ only by their order the same outcome? If so, divide by k!.

Multiply, add, subtract

  • • MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE: successive steps with n1,n2,…n_{1},n_{2},\dots choices give n1×n2×⋯n_{1}\times n_{2}\times\cdots outcomes, if the NUMBER of choices at a step does not depend on the earlier choices.
  • • ADDITION PRINCIPLE: DISJOINT families add up. Otherwise, ∣A∪B∣=∣A∣+∣B∣−∣A∩B∣|A\cup B|=|A|+|B|-|A\cap B|.
  • • Three sets: ∣A∪B∪C∣=∣A∣+∣B∣+∣C∣−∣A∩B∣−∣A∩C∣−∣B∩C∣+∣A∩B∩C∣|A\cup B\cup C|=|A|+|B|+|C|-|A\cap B|-|A\cap C|-|B\cap C|+|A\cap B\cap C|.
  • • Complement and De Morgan: ∣A‾∣=∣Ω∣−∣A∣|\overline{A}|=|\Omega|-|A| and A∪B‾=A‾∩B‾\overline{A\cup B}=\overline{A}\cap\overline{B}; “at least one” is the complement of “none”.

Before adding, ask whether the same outcome can be in two families. If so, the intersection must be removed.

Pascal's triangle and the binomial theorem

  • • Pascal's identity: (nk)=(n−1k−1)+(n−1k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n-1}{k-1}+\binom{n-1}{k} for 1≤k≤n−11\le k\le n-1; symmetry: (nk)=(nn−k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n}{n-k}.
  • • Binomial theorem: (a+b)n=∑k=0n(nk)an−kbk(a+b)^{n}=\sum_{k=0}^{n}\binom{n}{k}a^{n-k}b^{k}. The general term is computed with its signs and its coefficients: (nk)(αx)n−kβk\binom{n}{k}(\alpha x)^{n-k}\beta^{k}.
  • • With a=b=1a=b=1: ∑k=0n(nk)=2n\sum_{k=0}^{n}\binom{n}{k}=2^{n}, the number of subsets of a set with nn elements.
row 01row 111row 2121row 31331row 414641row 515101051row 6161520156110 + 10 = 20each row reads the same in both directions
Each number is the sum of the two numbers above it: 10+10=2010+10=20, that is (63)=(52)+(53)\binom{6}{3}=\binom{5}{2}+\binom{5}{3}. Each row reads the same in both directions.

The mistakes that cost marks

These are the errors I correct most often in session. Each one costs marks on a paper, even when the reasoning behind it is right.

1. Counting a group like a ranking

the whole question

What not to write

“A team of 3 students out of 10: 10×9×8=72010\times 9\times 8=720 teams.”

What to write

“A team with no roles is a set; the order of choice does not matter: (103)=7203!=120\binom{10}{3}=\frac{720}{3!}=120 teams.”

Why: The product 10 × 9 × 8 produces each team once per order of choice, that is six times. It would be right for three distinct roles.

2. Adding two sets that overlap

2 marks

What not to write

“40 plots have maples and 25 have birches: 65 plots have at least one of the two species.”

What to write

“9 plots have both species: ∣A∪B∣=40+25−9=56|A\cup B|=40+25-9=56.”

A: 40B: 259311640 + 25 counts the 9 in the middle twiceat least one: 40 + 25 - 9 = 56
The red lens belongs to both circles: the sum 40+2540+25 counts its 9 plots twice, and only one copy is removed.

Why: The addition principle requires disjoint families. The common plots are in both numbers: they are counted twice.

3. Counting “at least one” by designating “the” first one

2 to 3 marks

What not to write

“4 species out of 8, 3 of them endangered, with at least one endangered: I choose the endangered one, then 3 others, 3×(73)=1053\times\binom{7}{3}=105.”

What to write

“Through the complement: (84)−(54)=70−5=65\binom{8}{4}-\binom{5}{4}=70-5=65 choices.”

Why: A choice that contains two endangered species is produced twice, once per species designated as “the” endangered one. The complement, “no endangered species”, counts nothing twice.

4. Permuting identical objects as if they were distinct

2 marks

What not to write

“With the bases A, A, C, C, G, we write 5!=1205!=120 sequences.”

What to write

“Swapping the two A's or the two C's changes nothing: 5!2! 2!=30\frac{5!}{2!\,2!}=30 sequences.”

A₁A₂CA₂A₁CAACA₁CA₂A₂CA₁ACACA₁A₂CA₂A₁CAA6 orderings3 sequences3! / 2! = 3:swapping the two A'schanges nothing
With A, A, C: six orderings if the two A's are told apart, but only three sequences, since each sequence is obtained 2!=22!=2 times.

Why: Each sequence is produced 2! × 2! = 4 times by the 120 arrangements. Divide by the swaps that change nothing.

5. Forgetting that the groups have no names

1 to 2 marks

What not to write

“12 students in 3 teams of 4 with no sector: (124)(84)(44)=34,650\binom{12}{4}\binom{8}{4}\binom{4}{4}=34{,}650 splits.”

What to write

“This product numbers the teams; without names, divide by 3!3!: 34,6506=5775\frac{34{,}650}{6}=5775 splits.”

Why: The same split appears once for each of the 3! ways of numbering the teams. With three different sectors, 34,650 becomes right again.

6. Dividing by k! when the places are already told apart

the whole question

What not to write

“4 wells in 4 different rows and 4 different columns of a 4 × 6 plate: order does not matter, so P(6, 4)4!=15\frac{P(6,\,4)}{4!}=15.”

What to write

“One well per row; the column of A, then of B, of C, of D: 6×5×4×3=3606\times 5\times 4\times 3=360 choices.”

Why: You divide by k! only if each outcome was produced k! times. Here the row already names each well: each set is produced only once.

7. Losing the sign or the coefficient in the binomial theorem

1 mark

What not to write

“The coefficient of xx in (3x−2)4(3x-2)^{4} is (43)×3×23=96\binom{4}{3}\times 3\times 2^{3}=96.”

What to write

“The term is (43)(3x)1(−2)3=4×3x×(−8)=−96x\binom{4}{3}(3x)^{1}(-2)^{3}=4\times 3x\times(-8)=-96x: the coefficient is −96-96.”

Why: The binomial theorem applies to a = 3x and b = −2 as wholes: the coefficient of x and the sign of b are raised to the power with them.

8. Dividing by the number of values instead of the number of equally likely cases

the whole question

What not to write

“The magnetization of 10 spins takes 11 values, so P(M=0)=111P(M=0)=\frac{1}{11}.”

What to write

“It is the 210=10242^{10}=1024 configurations that are equally likely: P(M=0)=(105)1024=2521024≈0.246P(M=0)=\frac{\binom{10}{5}}{1024}=\frac{252}{1024}\approx 0.246.”

Why: The formula favourable cases over possible cases requires EQUALLY LIKELY cases. The 11 values are not: M = 0 groups 252 configurations, M = 10 a single one.

Which method to choose

Which formula? Decide on what an outcome is

Write a sentence that describes ONE outcome, then follow the first branch that applies.

  • If all the objects are placed and some are identical → n!n1!⋯nr!\frac{n!}{n_{1}!\cdots n_{r}!}

    Example: 12 bases, 4 A, 3 C, 3 G, 2 T: 12!4! 3! 3! 2!=277,200\frac{12!}{4!\,3!\,3!\,2!}=277{,}200

  • If ordered places, an object can come back → nkn^{k}

    Example: 3-digit codes: 103=100010^{3}=1000

  • If ordered places, distinct objects → P(n,k)=n!(n−k)!P(n,k)=\frac{n!}{(n-k)!}

    Example: 4 positions of an autosampler, 6 vials: P(6, 4)=360P(6,\,4)=360

  • If a group, order changes nothing → (nk)\binom{n}{k}

    Example: 4 control wells out of 24: (244)=10,626\binom{24}{4}=10{,}626

  • If several groups of the same size, without names → numbered groups, then divide by the number of numberings

    Example: 3 teams of 4: 34,6503!=5775\frac{34{,}650}{3!}=5775

If no branch applies, split the construction into steps and multiply; check that the number of choices at each step does not depend on the earlier choices.

The words in the question that change the operation

Spot the word that links the conditions.

  • If “and”, “then”, a sequence of steps → multiply

    Example: a row, then 4 wells in that row: 4×(64)=604\times\binom{6}{4}=60

  • If “or” between cases that do not overlap → add

    Example: exactly 4 or exactly 5 right numbers: 8415+2048415+204

  • If “or” between cases that overlap → inclusion-exclusion

    Example: 10+6−3=1310+6-3=13 forbidden mixtures

  • If “at least one” → total minus “none”

    Example: (244)−(184)=7566\binom{24}{4}-\binom{18}{4}=7566

  • If “exactly k” → choose the kk, then complete with the others

    Example: (64)(342)=8415\binom{6}{4}\binom{34}{2}=8415

“At least two”, “at most three”: count the complement if it has fewer cases than the event itself.

How the answer is expected to be written

A marker ticks steps. Here they are in order, with the concluding sentence expected word for word.

Writing up a count

When to use it: Any “how many ...” question, or any probability computed as favourable cases over possible cases.

  1. 1 Describe ONE outcome in a sentence: a list, a set, a split.
  2. 2 Say when two outcomes are the same: does order matter, can an object come back, can the objects be told apart?
  3. 3 Name the model (arrangement, combination, sequence, identical objects) or split into steps, naming the principle used.
  4. 4 Write the formula with its letters, then the numbers, then the result.
  5. 5 Check: small case, sum of the cases, order of magnitude.

Concluding sentence

“An outcome is a set of 4 wells; two choices that differ only by their order give the same set, so we count combinations: (244)=10,626\binom{24}{4}=10{,}626.”

The trap: Writing the number without the modelling sentence: a right answer without justification often loses half the marks.

Marking: Most often, the modelling is worth as much as the calculation.

Proving an identity by double counting

When to use it: “Show that” in front of an equality of binomial coefficients, such as (nk)=(n−1k−1)+(n−1k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n-1}{k-1}+\binom{n-1}{k}.

  1. 1 Choose a concrete set that the left-hand side counts: the configurations of nn spins with kk up.
  2. 2 Split it into families by a simple criterion, for example the orientation of the last spin.
  3. 3 Count each family, and justify that they are disjoint and that together they contain the whole set.
  4. 4 Conclude with the addition principle: two counts of the same set give the same number.

Concluding sentence

“The two families are disjoint and their union is the set of configurations with kk spins up, so (nk)=(n−1k−1)+(n−1k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n-1}{k-1}+\binom{n-1}{k}.”

The trap: Forgetting to justify “disjoint” and “contain everything”: that is exactly what turns the addition into a proof.

Check before you hand in

Five minutes of checking recover more marks than one more problem started in a hurry.

  • The small case by hand

    Replace the data by tiny numbers and list everything: the formula must give the same count.

    Groups of 2 out of {A, B, C, D}: AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD, that is 6, and (42)=6\binom{4}{2}=6. If your formula gives 12, it counts the order.

  • The sum of the cases gives back the total

    When you split into disjoint cases, add them up: you must recover the total counted another way.

    Teams of 4 out of 7 biologists and 5 technicians, sorted by number of technicians: 35+175+210+70+5=495=(124)35+175+210+70+5=495=\binom{12}{4}.

  • Arrangements against combinations

    Their ratio must be exactly k!k!; a ratio that is not a factorial betrays a modelling error.

    P(24, 4)(244)=255,02410,626=24=4!\frac{P(24,\,4)}{\binom{24}{4}}=\frac{255{,}024}{10{,}626}=24=4!

  • The calculator

    TI-83 and TI-84: MATH key, PRB menu, functions nPr and nCr. Casio: OPTN, then PROB. It confirms a calculation, not a model.

    10 nCr 4 displays 210 and 10 nPr 4 displays 5040: the ratio 24=4!24=4! confirms that going from one to the other is indeed the order.

The typical problem, taken apart

A field team with at least one technician

An ecology laboratory has 7 biologists and 5 technicians. For a field mission, a team of 4 people is formed, which must include at least one technician.

a)How many teams can be formed?b)A leader is also designated among the 4 members of the team: how many choices of team with a leader are there?

Step 1

An outcome of a) is a team, that is a SET of 4 people out of 12: order does not matter. With no constraint: (124)=495\binom{12}{4}=495 teams.

Why

The modelling sentence comes first: it chooses the combination and often earns half the marks.

Step 2

“At least one technician”: complement, “no technician”, that is 4 biologists out of 7, (74)=35\binom{7}{4}=35 teams. So 495−35=460495-35=460 teams.

Why

The complement has only one case, the event has four (1, 2, 3 or 4 technicians): fewer calculations, fewer risks of counting twice.

Step 3

b) For each team, 4 choices of leader: multiplication principle, 460×4=1840460\times 4=1840 choices.

Why

The leader creates a role: two identical teams with different leaders are two different outcomes.

Step 4

Check by cases: 1 technician 5×(73)=1755\times\binom{7}{3}=175, 2 technicians (52)(72)=210\binom{5}{2}\binom{7}{2}=210, 3 technicians (53)×7=70\binom{5}{3}\times 7=70, 4 technicians (54)=5\binom{5}{4}=5; total 175+210+70+5=460175+210+70+5=460.

Why

Two independent methods that give the same number: that is the safest check of a count.

The conclusion, written out

460 teams with at least one technician can be formed, and 1840 teams with a designated leader.

The classic mistake on this problem: Choosing “the” technician (5 ways), then 3 other people out of 11: 5×(113)=8255\times\binom{11}{3}=825. Each team is counted as many times as it has technicians: 175+2×210+3×70+4×5=825175+2\times 210+3\times 70+4\times 5=825.

Learn by heart

  • • P(n,k)=k!(nk)P(n,k)=k!\binom{n}{k}: choose WHICH objects, then in WHAT ORDER.
  • • Identical objects: divide n!n! by the factorials of the groups of identical objects.
  • • “At least one” = total minus “none”.
  • • ∣A∪B∣=∣A∣+∣B∣−∣A∩B∣|A\cup B|=|A|+|B|-|A\cap B|: add directly only DISJOINT families.
  • • (nk)=(nn−k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n}{n-k}, (nk)=(n−1k−1)+(n−1k)\binom{n}{k}=\binom{n-1}{k-1}+\binom{n-1}{k}, ∑k=0n(nk)=2n\sum_{k=0}^{n}\binom{n}{k}=2^{n}, 0!=10!=1.
  • • General term of the binomial theorem: (nk)an−kbk\binom{n}{k}a^{n-k}b^{k}, with aa and bb taken AS WHOLES, sign included.
  • • Probability by counting: favourable cases over possible cases, only if the possible cases are EQUALLY LIKELY.

Frequently asked questions

How do you know whether order matters in a counting problem?

Take two outcomes made of the same objects in a different order and ask whether they are the same thing in the situation. A team with no roles, a mixture, a set of marked numbers: same outcome, order does not matter. A ranking, numbered positions, distinct roles: different outcomes, order matters.

What is the difference between an arrangement and a combination?

An arrangement is an ordered list of distinct objects, a combination is a set without order. Each combination of k objects gives k factorial arrangements, one per possible order. The number of combinations is therefore obtained by dividing the number of arrangements by k factorial.

How do you count “at least one” in a counting problem?

Go through the complement: count the outcomes that contain none, then subtract them from the total. The direct calculation, which first designates one element and then completes, counts several times the outcomes that contain several: it is the most frequent error of the chapter.

How do you find a coefficient with the binomial theorem?

Write the general term: the binomial coefficient of n and k, times the first term to the power n minus k, times the second term to the power k, keeping each term whole with its coefficient and its sign. Find the value of k that gives the desired power of x, then compute. A minus sign raised to an odd power stays negative.

What is Pascal's triangle used for in CEGEP probability?

It gives all the binomial coefficients without factorials: each number is the sum of the two numbers above it. It shows the coefficients of the binomial theorem and the number of ways to choose k objects out of n, which is used next for the binomial distribution. Its symmetry and the sum of each row, a power of 2, are quick checks.

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Practise it

Corrected exercises: Counting, 201-SN1-RE

A method is proved on a paper, not on a sheet. The set for the same chapter takes each of these traps into a problem, with the solution written out step by step.

  • 11 corrected exercises
  • 110 points
  • 150 minutes
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© Ahmed Squalli Houssaini. Revision sheet published at www.letuteurscientifique.ca/en/fiches/cegep-sn1-counting. Free for personal and classroom use; republishing it elsewhere requires written permission (legal notice).

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